Thursday, November 15, 2012

I must confess, I have been ridiculously wrong lately...





Ugh. Being wrong sucks. It's happens just often enough to make you feel dumb and humbled or dumbled.  I've been trading for 7 years and I know a thing or two about a thing or two. The very first stock I bought in 05' was Valero. I let it run till late 06' and got paid big time. It was nice being right, but I was lucky too, I sold near the top. Don't ask me how I did it, cause I couldn't tell you, but I did it. Even as a beginner I knew to take profit. So what did I do wrong? How did I get in such a jam on Apple...


1. I did not adapt -why did I refuse to change? I was like an old grandpa screaming at the kids for playing that terrible rock n roll music too loud. I couldn't join the hip crowd because I was OLD and ANGRY and didn't want to hear any of it. Everyone who didn't agree with me was either STUPID or CRAZY and that was that! If the industry is tech gadgets and the pace is pretty fast am I up to speed? Have I tried the Galaxy? the Nexus? All the apps? Not hip at all.

Now I have so much egg on my face you could make an omelette.

2. I was not patient - this has FOMO (fear of missing out) written all over it. Patience is key in times like these, so hang tight, distract yourself and go play Canasta or something. Trading political headlines sucks and so does government squabbles. If there's ever any deadline for anything - politicians will wait up until the last second before they defuse the bomb. It's so cliche, like, spare us the drama.

Betting on Washington to arrive early? Not a good bet.


3. I wanted revenge. Basically I became a stalker (stocker?) with a stock that just wanted to be left alone. I called too much. I cheered on every half-hearted attempt at a make-up rally. I sent nasty texts berating her when it failed. I cried. I drank. I cried and drank and drank and cried all while I looked at old pictures of her charts. Like a broken relationship, when the good ol' days are gone they don't come back. Had I just let her go ohhhhhhh I could of avoided all this pain and embarrassment. Oh well. It's better to have profited and lost than to have never profited at all. Conclusion?

Don't be a stocker. All healthy relationships need room to breathe.

4. I ignored reality. I was in a burning building with fire all around me and I'm jumping up and down pointing at a part of the house that's not on fire yet. In other words, I had dangerous amounts of tunnel vision. I was as stubborn in my beliefs as a religious nut, and like a religious nut, I changed my perception of reality to fit my views. That's what I did and I'm ashamed yet humbled or - ashumbled.

The Future: And other things later than now.


Where will Apple go? Will it hold this support level at 525? Is 525 a good price to buy? Will it bounce? Will it crash some more???


 I don't know. Who cares. When she wants to come back, she will.

P.S

Hurry up though, I miss you.

XOXOX

R



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